The Changing Demographics of the United States- and its Implications on Electoral Politics
The United States currently is in the midst of a rapid and substantial demographic shift from an overwhelmingly white country to a majority-minority country. The white, non-Hispanic population accounted for 69 percent of the US population in 2000.[1] This was reduced to 64 percent in 2010, and is projected to fall to 56 percent in 2030.[2] By 2042, the United States is estimated to become a majority-minority country.[3]
These projected demographic changes will have a major effect on the future of American elections. Because Democrats historically carry the minority vote, demographic changes of this magnitude bode well for the party’s future electoral success. Ruy Teixeira and John Judis illustrated this trend with their 2002 book, The Emerging Democratic Majority. Teixeira has continued to study demographic changes and his updated analysis still shows the potential for great success for Democrats in the coming decades.
While these analyses show that the demographic changes will benefit the Democratic Party, our analysis focuses on how demographic changes will alter the race for the presidency through changes to the Electoral College and the partisanship of swing states. This report will detail changes over the next 20 years in the the general population and voting eligible electorate, arrangement of the 538 Electoral College votes, and support for the Democratic Party in several scenarios.
After examining the scenarios, we will discuss the implications for both parties’ political strategies. Given the number of different assumptions and calculations, the following report is not intended to be a prediction, but rather broadly illustrates the impact of a rapidly changing country on presidential politics.
Hispanic/ Latino Influence on Previous Presidential Elections
Hispanic/Latinos have played a key role in each of the last three elections, a fact that illustrates the importance for Democrats to maintain their support among this key constituency. In the 2000 election, Al Gore won 66 percent of the Hispanic/Latino vote.[4] His overwhelming support in key swing states, such as New Mexico where he received 66 percent of the Hispanic/ Latino vote, was essential.[5] However, Gore lost 49 percent to 48 percent among Hispanics/Latinos in Florida, primarily due to a lack of support from persons of Cuban decent. Given that Florida was the deciding state in the presidential election and the two candidates were only separated by around 500 votes, Gore’s drastic underperformance among Hispanics/Latinos in Florida played an important role in the election of President Bush.
In the 2004 presidential election, President Bush received 44 percent of the Hispanic/Latino vote, which was the second-highest percent of the Hispanic/Latino vote ever cast for a Republican candidate.[6] As a result, President Bush had a much easier time winning re-election against John Kerry by capturing New Mexico and expanding his lead in Florida.
Republican gains among Hispanics and Latinos proved to be short-lived as Barack Obama won 67 percent of Hispanic/Latino votes in 2008. High levels of Hispanic/Latino support helped Obama win several states won by Bush in 2004.[7] Obama won 76 percent of the Hispanic/Latino vote in Nevada and 69 percent in New Mexico.[8] He also avoided Gore’s massive decline in support in Florida by winning 59 percent of its Hispanic/Latino vote.[9]
Projected Changes in US Population and Electorate 2010-2030
The United States population currently is estimated at 312 million and is composed of 64 percent white, 16 percent Hispanic/Latino, 13 percent black, four percent Asian, and three percent other races. By 2030, the population is projected to reach 373 million. However, the 19 percent growth over the next two decades is not spread evenly over all races. The white population will increase by almost four percent over the next two decades, which pales in comparison to the growth rates of Hispanics (63%), blacks (27%), Asians (55%), and other races (53%). As a result, the breakdown of the population by race will shift to 56 percent white, with 22 percent Hispanic/ Latino, 13 percent black, five percent Asian, and four percent other races.
While minorities, especially Hispanic/Latinos, will experience tremendous growth in the next two decades, their growth as a share of the American electorate likely will be much smaller. Minorities have a much lower share of their population eligible to vote due to two major reasons: higher proportions of non-citizens and the high proportion of those under age 18. According to Pew Research, 78 percent of whites are voting eligible, compared with 67 percent of blacks, 53 percent of Asians, and just 43 percent of Hispanics/ Latinos.[10] As a result, with a six-percent increase in the total population, Hispanics/Latinos will see only a four-percent increase as a share of the electorate, moving from eight percent to 12 percent. Similarly, whites’ population decline by eight percent is staunched to just a six-percent decline as a share of the electorate.
Changes in the Apportionment of Electoral College Votes
Just as population growth will not be spread equally across racial groups, population growth will not come equally to all states. States in New England and the Rust Belt likely will continue to experience slow growth over the course of the next two decades. Meanwhile, the Southwest and Southeast regions will continue to grow by leaps and bounds.
Using projections from the Census Bureau and state agencies, we were able to determine the total estimated population for each state in 2020 and 2030. To determine each state’s electoral votes, we used the same assignment formula and process as used by the Electoral College.[11]
Over the next two decades, the states with the biggest gains in electoral votes likely will be California (+5), Georgia (+3), Arizona (+3), and North Carolina (+2). The biggest losers will be New York (-3), Pennsylvania (-3), and Ohio (-2). Another 18 states will either gain or lose one electoral vote.
As a result of the continued population shift from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt, the focus of the two parties will shift from Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan to Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia.
Methodology
The following models are an effort to show the effects ceteris paribus of the changing population of various races on presidential elections. To calculate the level of support for Democratic candidates by race, we used exit polling from the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections. Support by race for Democratic candidates for president in 2004 and 2008 in every state was averaged to create a “generic” Democratic level of support in each state for every race. In states where the size of some minority groups only accounted for one or two percent of the electorate and therefore were not included in exit polling, we used the national average for the race. This is not a perfect method, but any error would have a very minimal effect on the end result. Overestimating Democratic support from a minority group that made up one percent of the electorate of a state by 20 percent would result in the estimate being off by just .2 percent. Thus, using the national average to estimate support in races that consist of a small portion of the electorate will not influence how we label the state.
While the Census Bureau and state agencies projected the total population through 2030, they did not estimate the number of voters by race. To reach this number, we again assumed that nothing would change in the dynamics of how groups choose whether or not to vote. Some ethnic groups in certain states turnout extremely well and others turn out quite poorly. We sought to determine which ethnic groups over- and underperformed compared to their proportion of the population. Therefore, we divided the percent of the turnout by race over that race’s percent of the population for each state. We then multiplied that number by the estimated population of each race to determine future turnout.
After estimating turnout by race in every state, we applied the electoral preference of each state’s races to the estimated turnout. This gave us the level of Democratic support in the state. If the level was about 55 percent, the state was considered Base Democratic. If support was between 52.5 and 55 percent, the state was labeled Lean Democratic. States with support between 47.5 and 52.5 percent were considered swing states. Lean and Base Republican states are the mirror image of Lean and Base Democratic states.
Scenario 1: Baseline Model of Democratic Support 2012-2032
Democrats already have an advantage in the Electoral College due to their greater support in more populous states. Of the 17 non-swing states with more than 10 electoral votes, Democrats control 11, including four of the five largest states.
In 2012 due primarily to support in the most populous states, all Lean and Base Democratic states account for 251 electoral votes, while Republicans start at 196. This leaves Democrats numerous possible swing state combinations to reach the magic total of 270 electoral votes. Democrats could focus on one state, either by capturing Florida to achieve victory or Ohio to tie at 269, or Democrats can look to any combination of the five smaller swing states to gain at least 18 electoral votes.
By 2024, Nevada and Iowa will move from swing states to Lean Democratic, which bumps the average Democratic starting point to 260 electoral votes, compared with just 182 for Republicans. From this advantageous starting position, Democrats would only need to pick up one of the six projected 2024 swing states (Ohio, Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Virginia, Georgia).
Without a fundamental change in strategy by either party by 2032, demographic changes are projected to put the total of Base and Lean Democratic states at 274, already greater than the required 270. Therefore in 2032, Republicans not only would need to sweep the six swing states, but also pick up a Lean Democratic state that is larger than New Hampshire.
The following graphic illustrates where these demographic changes will have the greatest impact on the Electoral College from 2012 to 2032. One of the fastest-growing states in the country is Nevada, and it also will experience the greatest change in political leanings over the next two decades, moving from a swing state in 2012 to a Base Democratic state by 2032. Elsewhere across the country the changes are more modest; Democrats should be able to build upon the inroads made in the Southeast in the 2008 election, and put North Carolina and Georgia consistently into play. Of course, much of the map also will remain exactly the same. Democrats will continue to have strongholds in the Northeast and the West Coast, while Republicans will continue to dominate the Deep South and the Plains.
Scenario 2: What if Democrats Cannot Maintain Hispanic/Latino Support?
Hispanics and Latinos are a rapidly growing share of the electorate, but Democrats are not guaranteed to continue to perform at such high levels among these communities. President George Bush received 44 percent of the Hispanic/Latino vote in 2004, and as the Republican Party realizes how difficult the Electoral College math becomes without increasing minority support, presumably Republicans will focus on denting the Democratic advantage.[12]
In an effort to see how the baseline model would be altered with a decline in Hispanic support, the model was re-calibrated 10 percentage points lower for Hispanic/Latino support in all states. This clearly is a less than surgical adjustment, but it is impossible to anticipate which states have greater potential for Republican gains among Hispanics and Latinos than others. Because it is extremely unlikely the Republican Party could make gains of this magnitude in time for the 2012 election, its results are kept the same as the baseline model.
The biggest difference between these results and the original baseline is that with a continued high level of Hispanic/ Latino support, Base Democratic states will increase by 37 votes over the next two decades; but with 10 percent lower Hispanic/ Latino support, Base Democratic states actually decline by five votes. However, the sum of Base and Lean states still is much higher for Democrats than Republicans even with substantially lower Hispanic support.
In 2024, Democrats only need to win either Ohio or Florida to exceed 270 electoral votes, or any combination of two of the six swing states (Iowa, Ohio, Colorado, Missouri, Florida, and Virginia). Democrats’ options improve even more in 2032 because Democrats hypothetically can win the election with picking up just 12 electoral votes from the swing states.
Unlike the baseline model, if Democrats lose substantial Hispanic/ Latino support there are very few changes in the Electoral College map from 2012 to 2032. Only four states change their status. Iowa and Nevada move from swing states to Lean Democratic. Georgia and North Carolina shift from Lean Republican to swing states. Comparing the two models reveals the battles for the presidency through 2032 will be fought in the same states no matter which level of Hispanic/ Latino support Democrats have. Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina, and Florida are swing states throughout the length of both the baseline and lower Hispanic/ Latino support projections.
@LPStrategies