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Why Minnesota Will Crown Hillary Clinton in 2016

June 124, 2015 | Republic 3.0

The days of the national presidential campaign are long gone.

With the help of data, technology, and the diminishing existence of true swing voters, campaigns now focus even more specifically on a couple critical states, skipping approximately four-fifths of the country. In 2012, Obama visited fewer than half of the states in the US, only visiting 23 states (plus the District of Columbia) in the six months prior to the election, with Ohio and Florida accounting for nearly a quarter of his campaign stops. And it appears Hillary Clinton is following suit. By all accounts, Clinton is poised to follow a much more targeted campaign strategy, instead of following Bill Clinton’s 1992 path to victory that lead him through southern states now unimaginable for national Democrats to win today.

But as the field of decisive states narrows, which state will figure most prominently in 2016? While Ohio, Virginia, and Florida are the swing states that typically come first to mind, the state that ultimately puts Clinton into the White House is likely to be a much less talked-about player: Minnesota. Read more here >>

Elsewhere In the News:

Campaigns and Elections

What Down-Ballot Campaigns Can Learn From Hillary Clinton

June 18, 2015 | Campaigns & Elections

Hillary Clinton is no stranger to criticism of her politics, credibility, her family’s foundation or even her fashion sense. But after the launch of her campaign, a new line of attack was opened up.

The latest isn’t a novel argument about her voting record or personal email server, but instead fundamentally questions her campaign strategy — a strategy that even down-ballot candidates can replicate.

Read more here >>

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Public opinion and the 114th Congress

January 4, 2015 | CSPAN

Stefan Hankin and pollster Brian Nienaber talked about public opinion on policy issues expected to be addressed in the 114th Congress. Topics included health care, immigration, taxes, the economy, foreign crises, and the role of government. They also discussed the 2016 election.

Watch here >>

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The Rising Electorate’s Rising Moderates

March, 2015 | Republic 3.0

Our latest polling for Republic 3.0 (a nationwide survey of 1,000 likely voters, conducted December 7-9, 2014) shows that the so-called “Rising Electorate” – composed of millennials, African-American, Asian and Hispanic voters – already makes up 45 percent of the current electorate, and will be the fastest growing cohort of voters over the next five decades. But before Democrats start popping the champagne corks, one critical fact should give pause to those who are pushing for a more liberal agenda for the Democratic Party as a way to make these voters lifelong Democratic loyalists: significant numbers of the Rising Electorate consider themselves to be ideologically moderate.

Read more here>>

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Americans Say: Avoid a Showdown on Immigration Reform

January, 2015 | Republic 3.0

Our latest polling for Republic 3.0 (a nationwide survey of 1,000 likely voters, conducted December 7-9, 2014) shows that the current path that Republicans in Congress are taking on immigration reform and DHS funding is only appealing to less than a third of Americans. Indeed, the majority of Americans want to see Congress and the President take constructive steps to fixing the immigration system in this country.

Read more here>>

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Are you wearing red-colored glasses? Partisanship can affect view of the economy

January, 2015 | Republic 3.0

Our latest polling for Republic 3.0 (a nationwide survey of 1,000 likely voters, conducted December 7-9, 2014) shows us that despite the improving economy, only a quarter of Americans think the economy has gotten better. Our research shows that partisanship is the most reliable indicator of an individual’s perception of the state of the economy, regardless of the actual economic conditions.

Read more here>>

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The Myth of the “Independent”Voter

October, 2014 | Republic 3.0

Our latest polling for Republic 3.0 (a nationwide survey of 1,000 likely voters, conducted Sept. 30 – Oct. 2) shows us that the term “Independent” is fairly meaningless when it comes to thinking about key voters. In the news media, the terms “Independent” and “moderate” are often used interchangeably to mean those voters who fall in between Democrats and Republicans in their political beliefs.

Read more here>>

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Public opinion and 2014 Midterm Elections

October 5, 2014 | CSPAN

Stefan Hankin and Brian Nienaber talked public opinion toward the 2014 midterm elections. They discussed voter enthusiasm, key Senate races, and the “gender gap.” and key policy issues such as health care, immigration reform, tax policy, and jobs and the economy.

Watch here>>

 

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Stefan Hankin on Online Harassment

August 2014 | Levick

In this LEVICK Daily video interview, Stefan Hankin, the Founder and President of Lincoln Park Strategies, examines an upcoming U.S. Supreme Court decision regarding online harassment and how it will impact the bounds of acceptable behavior on the Web.

Watch here>>

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Most Americans have little or no trust in social media sites

August 2014 | Digital Journal

The majority of Americans have little or no trust that social media sites will respect and protect their online privacy. So say the results of a recently-released survey of American adults about their privacy experiences on the Internet.

The survey, commissioned by Rad Campaign, Lincoln Park Strategies and Craigslist founder Craig Newmark, asked 1,007 respondents a variety of questions about social media and online privacy. It found that 74 percent of Americans are either “very or somewhat concerned” about having too much of their personal information online.

Read more here>>

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Online Privacy a Major Concern for Americans

August 2014 | eWEEK

Almost three-quarters of Americans worry about the quantity of personal information available online, according to a survey conducted by Rad Campaign, Lincoln Park Strategies and Craig Newmark of craigconnects.

More than half of the 1,007 Americans surveyed said they feel they cannot trust social media sites such as Facebook and Twitter to keep their contact information, buying habits and political beliefs confidential. 

Read more here>>

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GDP grows at 4 percent pace. Good news for Democrats and Obama, right?

July 2014 | The Christian Science Monitor

The Supreme Court recently agreed to hear a case this fall to decide if threatening Facebook posts are protected “free speech” under the First Amendment. The case involves a Pennsylvania man who was sentenced to four years in prison for death threats that he posted on his Facebook page against his wife.

Regardless of what the Court decides, this case has raised a pivotal question that falls outside the “traditional” scope of government regulation: who should regulate and monitor content on the Internet?

Read more here>>

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Twitter and Facebook should step up now to stop online harassment

June 2014 | Stefan Hankin

The Supreme Court recently agreed to hear a case this fall to decide if threatening Facebook posts are protected “free speech” under the First Amendment. The case involves a Pennsylvania man who was sentenced to four years in prison for death threats that he posted on his Facebook page against his wife.

Regardless of what the Court decides, this case has raised a pivotal question that falls outside the “traditional” scope of government regulation: who should regulate and monitor content on the Internet?

Read more here>>

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In The Capital’s Profile on Lincoln Park Strategies

Tess VandenDolder from In The Capital met with Stefan Hankin, president and founder of the polling firm Lincoln Park Strategies, to try to figure out just what being a pollster in this town was all about.

Read more here>>

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Poll: Sexual Harassment on Facebook Most Common Abuse

June 4, 2014 | U.S. News & World Report

Facebook has become the world’s most popular social network and has added a profound impact on daily life, which might not always be a good thing, a new online survey finds. Facebook is home to 62 percent of online abuse in the U.S., according to the poll, released on Wednesday.

Read more here>>

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Four must-know facts about “moderate” voters

April 2014 | Stefan Hankin

“Moderate” voters are one of the most misunderstood blocs of the electorate. While they have historically comprised a plurality of American voters – 41 percent of voters in 2012 and 44 percent in 2008  – moderates are not nearly as monolithic as liberals or conservatives in their ideology or their voting behavior.

Read more here>>

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Is it gerrymandering – or geography? Why redistricting reform can’t end polarization.

April 2014 | Stefan Hankin

As frustrations with an increasingly partisan and unresponsive Congress have mounted, many people both inside Washington and out point to gerrymandering as the culprit. Creating “safe” and highly partisan seats, the argument goes, has created a generation of extremist members who cater to their base during primaries and have nothing to fear in general elections. The solution, proponents of this school of thought say, is nonpartisan redistricting reform

Read more here>>

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 Keystone XL: All Lobbied Up with No Place To Go

May 16, 2014 | Forbes

Two possibilities now loom over Keystone XL and, by extension, the energy industry. Neither one is good.

Read more here>>

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 Polls show Cobb County voters want Braves closer, but don’t want to pay for the move

May 14, 2014 | Atlanta Journal Constitution

With a primary vote only days away, a pair of polls commissioned has found that voters in the northern half of Cobb County – who are about to weigh in on two county commission races – like the idea of the Braves moving closer.

But they have no interest in paying taxes to move the team across the Chattahoochee River.

Read more here>>

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Group targets 2015 for new Vermont gun law

May 2, 2014 | Burlington Free Press

Supporters of increased controls over guns in Vermont accepted the fact that legislation was going nowhere in 2014.

When lawmakers declined to vote this year on gun-control charter changes passed by Burlington voters in March, gun control supporters opted against raising a ruckus.

Read more here>>

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 2014 Midterm Elections

April 13, 2014 | CSPAN

Stefan Hankin and Kellyanne Conway talked about public opinion on politics and policy, and the political climate ahead of the 2014 midterm elections and 2016 presidential election. They also spoke about the future of the Affordable Care Act, income inequality, the gender pay equity gap, tax and fiscal policies, and President Obama’s foreign policy and political future. Watch here>>

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